If NASA were to terminate its contracts with SpaceX, it would effectively mean the end of the International Space Station. The problem with this is that SpaceX also holds the contract to safely de-orbit the space station, which is currently due to occur in 2030. With a mass of more than 400 metric tons, the space station will be the largest human-made object ever to return to Earth and could cause substantial damage in populated areas if not safely de-orbited into a remote part of the Pacific Ocean.

SpaceX also is on the critical path of NASA’s program to return humans to the Moon, Artemis. NASA has contracted with SpaceX to use its developmental Starship vehicle as a lunar lander, taking crew down to the surface and bringing them back up to lunar orbit. Although it is true that NASA has also awarded Blue Origin a contract for the same service, it is unlikely that Blue Origin’s human lander will be complete for seven to 10 years. This means that if NASA wants to have any chance of beating China back to the Moon, it needs SpaceX to deliver.

For the US military, SpaceX is one of two main contractors that delivers national security payloads into orbit. However, the other provider, United Launch Alliance, has had difficulty getting its new rocket, Vulcan, through the certification process. This has led the US Space Force to begin moving missions from Vulcan to SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets. Given SpaceX’s reliability and responsiveness, the military has decided to award a majority of future launch contracts to the company.

The reason that Biden did not terminate these contracts, as Trump asserts he might well have, is because SpaceX has generally provided space services to the US government at a lower cost and on a faster timeline than its competitors. Were the Trump administration to sever its relationship with SpaceX, it would effectively set the US space enterprise back a decade or more and give China’s ascendant space program clear supremacy on the world stage.